Graphic Representation of Conserved & Developed Lands in Pennsylvania in 2008
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What will this graphic look like in 50 years?
See below for three possible futures.
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| *Based on Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) 2003 statistical update of 1997 National Resources Inventory and 299 acres/day development rate from 2003 to 2008; and **Based on inventory table. |
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Scenario A: Business As Usual
Assumption: Land consumption continues upward trend to average 600 acres/day. |
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Land consumption has doubled over the 1992-1997 rate. Considering that land consumption TRIPLED between 1982 and 1997, this projection may considerably understate future land consumption.
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Scenario B: Growth Management
Assumption: Land consumption slows to 1992-1997 rate of 99 acres/day. |
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Pennsylvania in 50 years will be as developed as the New Jersey of today. New Jersey is the nation’s most densely populated state with 37% of its land developed.
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Scenario C: New Paradigm
Assumption: Land consumption contracts to the 1982-87 rate of 100 acres/day. |
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Dramatically higher energy prices and/or a total reworking of the state’s infrastructure investment policies and land use laws result in more efficient development.
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